OMG! In ten days we've gone from a slow growth economy to a possible recession! That frightening word RECESSION is harped continuously through media outlets worldwide. Scaring us!!!
So, okay, let's be precise: A recession is defined as two or more negative gross domestic product growth (GDP) quarters in succession. Gross domestic product growth measures goods and services that the United States sells during specific time frames and is used as an economic barometer for government officials, as well as private sector economists. This is important because the United States currently has varied predictions ranging from one to two percent GDP growth for year 2011, and the mere thought of a negative percentage brings the world to it's knees!! Does this reaction warrant such aggressive fear-mongering?
Last night, Toby, our new feline guest for the week, was in need of various paraphernalia to satisfy his instincts and entertain yours truly. The short trip to Walmart was an enlightening positive boost to the negative evening news headlines. All of the parking lots were full on the one mile strip en route to my destination. That includes some well know restaurants like Carrabba's, Panera and Outback, all with long lines for dinner service. Walmart itself was very busy. Is this what it feels like when approaching a recession? I don't believe so.
Let's not forget that as the United States and Europe struggle under political regimes that favor socialism and unionism, the rest of the developed world (China, India, Brazil) is embracing capitalism and the "right to work" for all citizens. These three countries sport GDP growth rates in excess of six percent! Many of our international companies benefit from this growth. Hello Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Proctor and Gamble, Kimberly Clark, Caterpillar and others.
If we are entering a "double dip recession", so be it! Let's get on with it and work harder to get more freedoms, less regulation, get federal expenditures under control and substantial reform to our welfare system, including medicare and social security! It can all be done easily with some conviction from the top. If that should happen, the incentive to grow, succeed and make a better future for all of us will take hold. (Oh, whoops! Did I say the "welfare" word back there? Sorry, I meant entitlement programs. Let's not upset anyone, shall we?)
How's that for the glass being half full?
(Reminder: Check this blog's archives for other artcles.)
Steve M
Hey, Steve, your blog, above, is looking into the future from a viewpoint of 2011. 2008 was a year of disaster (especially for us small time Day Traders). I just looked at some of the economic charts showing how the gloom and doom lasted so along, and how we lived thru a Zombie Economy. We didn't have that "Double Dip Recession" that was so feared. Some economists will claim that it was those feared government regulations that prevented the economic indicators from whipping back and forth scaring investors from making any long-term investments and thereby further freezing investment. I think there is an acceptable amount of government involvement in MACRO Economic affairs that are helpful, not harmful. Sad but true.
ReplyDeleteThanks for producing this blog, Steve. However, it will not allow me to use my current email address and insists on using old gmail account.
Unknown comment above is from Bill Jones
ReplyDeletemovrshkr@comcast.net
"Socialism" should not be an American cuss-word. Definition: "a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole." Real-Life examples of "Socialistic" enterprises are: Sewage and water treatment plants; our highway system; the space program; etc. etc. So, there good aspects of Socialism.
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